Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +7.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 24 meetings). Spezza wins 55.0% vs left-shot opponents — Talbot shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 54.7% vs Talbot 47.0% (+7.8%)
H2H factor
Spezza leads 32-16 in 48 meetings
Offensive zone
Spezza 98.9%
Defensive zone
Spezza 86.5%
Neutral zone
Spezza 93.6%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 94.8%
94.8%
5.2%
Spezza
Talbot
Head-to-Head Record
32
-
16
(48 meetings)
32
16
Spezza
Talbot
Last 10: Spezza 7-3 Talbot
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
20
4
Spezza
Talbot
24 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Talbot
4
6
Spezza
Talbot
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
8
6
Spezza
Talbot
14 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Talbot
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (7,990)
48.3% (1,738)
+6.1%
Power Play
56.8% (1,726)
49.0% (51)
+7.8%
Penalty Kill
52.7% (643)
42.3% (631)
+10.4%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +10.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Talbot shoots left. Spezza is 55.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,310).
Spezza shoots right. Talbot is 47.8% vs right-shot opponents (895).
Home / Away
Spezza
Talbot
Home
56.8% (5,066)
48.0% (1,219)
Away
52.7% (5,332)
45.8% (1,215)
By Period
Spezza
Talbot
P1
55.7%
48.7%
P2
54.4%
43.5%
P3
54.1%
48.6%
OT
51.5%
45.0%
Final 5 min
54.2%
46.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.7%
Talbot
46.0%▲
43.5%
46.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 20, 2016 | 3 | 19:37 | Neutral | Max Talbot |
| Feb 20, 2016 | 2 | 04:23 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 3, 2015 | 3 | 14:42 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 29, 2014 | 3 | 01:21 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 16, 2014 | 3 | 19:11 | Defensive | Max Talbot |
| Mar 16, 2014 | 2 | 05:04 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 16, 2014 | 1 | 02:34 | Neutral | Max Talbot |
| Jan 8, 2014 | 2 | 12:14 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 31, 2012 | 3 | 05:42 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 31, 2012 | 3 | 05:18 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 31, 2012 | 3 | 03:52 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 31, 2012 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Max Talbot |
| Mar 31, 2012 | 1 | 07:47 | Defensive | Max Talbot |
| Jan 8, 2012 | 3 | 15:06 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 8, 2012 | 2 | 04:20 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 8, 2012 | 2 | 04:08 | Neutral | Max Talbot |
| Jan 7, 2012 | 2 | 10:58 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 18, 2011 | 2 | 04:15 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 18, 2011 | 2 | 04:05 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 18, 2011 | 2 | 02:37 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |