Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on neutral-zone draws (57% H2H, 7 meetings). Spezza wins 55.0% vs left-shot opponents — Chaput shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 54.7% vs Chaput 51.5% (+3.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Spezza 81.3%
Defensive zone
Chaput 50.5%
Neutral zone
Spezza 60.5%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 61.6%
61.6%
38.4%
Spezza
Chaput
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Spezza
Chaput
Last 9: Spezza 5-4 Chaput
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
1
0
Spezza
Chaput
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Chaput
0
1
Spezza
Chaput
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
4
3
Spezza
Chaput
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Chaput
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (7,990)
52.2% (1,168)
+2.2%
Power Play
56.8% (1,726)
42.9% (14)
+13.9%
Penalty Kill
52.7% (643)
42.9% (70)
+9.8%
On power play, Spezza has a +13.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Chaput shoots left. Spezza is 55.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,310).
Spezza shoots right. Chaput is 47.5% vs right-shot opponents (448).
Home / Away
Spezza
Chaput
Home
56.8% (5,066)
53.5% (602)
Away
52.7% (5,332)
49.8% (650)
By Period
Spezza
Chaput
P1
55.7%
48.6%
P2
54.4%
51.6%
P3
54.1%
54.5%
Final 5 min
54.2%
52.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.7%
Chaput
56.0%▲
46.5%
51.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2018 | 3 | 09:17 | Neutral | Michael Chaput |
| Dec 31, 2018 | 3 | 07:16 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 31, 2018 | 2 | 03:02 | Neutral | Michael Chaput |
| Dec 31, 2018 | 2 | 00:47 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 31, 2018 | 1 | 07:45 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 16, 2017 | 1 | 07:40 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 25, 2016 | 3 | 04:50 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 14, 2014 | 2 | 19:47 | Neutral | Michael Chaput |
| Oct 14, 2014 | 2 | 03:36 | Defensive | Michael Chaput |