Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +7.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Spezza wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 54.4% vs Backlund 47.4% (+7.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Backlund 56.0%
Defensive zone
Backlund 83.2%
Neutral zone
Backlund 65.5%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 69.8%
30.2%
69.8%
Spezza
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Spezza
Backlund
Last 8: Spezza 2-6 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
0
2
Spezza
Backlund
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
0
3
Spezza
Backlund
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
2
1
Spezza
Backlund
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
53.2% (763)
48.7% (912)
+4.5%
Power Play
60.9% (197)
46.3% (82)
+14.6%
Penalty Kill
57.1% (21)
38.3% (149)
+18.8%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +18.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Spezza is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (675).
Spezza shoots right. Backlund is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (414).
Home / Away
Spezza
Backlund
Home
57.5% (518)
48.2% (596)
Away
51.8% (463)
46.1% (547)
By Period
Spezza
Backlund
P1
55.4%
49.3%
P2
54.1%
44.7%
P3
55.5%
47.0%
OT
25.0%
72.7%
Final 5 min
59.1%
45.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.8%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
47.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2016 | 2 | 03:48 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 25, 2016 | 1 | 13:05 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 25, 2016 | 1 | 08:04 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 17, 2015 | 3 | 14:49 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 1, 2015 | OT | 04:07 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 1, 2015 | 3 | 03:01 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 1, 2015 | 2 | 11:16 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 1, 2015 | 1 | 07:10 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |