Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Spezza wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 52.4% vs Backlund 50.5% (+2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Spezza 59.9%
Defensive zone
Backlund 72.6%
Neutral zone
Backlund 55.1%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 52.0%
48.0%
52.0%
Spezza
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Spezza
Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Spezza
Backlund
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
0
1
Spezza
Backlund
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
0
1
Spezza
Backlund
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (451)
51.5% (983)
+2.2%
Power Play
54.3% (92)
49.4% (87)
+4.9%
Penalty Kill
38.2% (34)
45.3% (159)
-7.1%
On penalty kill, Backlund has a +7.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Spezza is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (409).
Spezza shoots right. Backlund is 49.5% vs right-shot opponents (487).
Home / Away
Spezza
Backlund
Home
55.0% (282)
51.6% (653)
Away
50.8% (295)
49.3% (576)
By Period
Spezza
Backlund
P1
53.1%
50.0%
P2
53.2%
49.8%
P3
52.3%
51.7%
Final 5 min
56.7%
50.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
52.9%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12, 2021 | 3 | 09:36 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 12, 2021 | 3 | 01:59 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 12, 2021 | 3 | 01:46 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 12, 2021 | 2 | 13:51 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |