Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +5.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on offensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Spezza wins 56.5% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 55.7% vs Backlund 51.7% (+5.0%)
H2H factor
Backlund leads 11-7 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
Backlund 56.8%
Defensive zone
Backlund 54.8%
Neutral zone
Backlund 57.9%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 56.3%
43.7%
56.3%
Spezza
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
11
(18 meetings)
7
11
Spezza
Backlund
Last 10: Spezza 4-6 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
2
5
Spezza
Backlund
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
2
5
Spezza
Backlund
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
3
1
Spezza
Backlund
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
57.9% (292)
53.2% (602)
+4.7%
Power Play
62.3% (53)
56.1% (66)
+6.2%
Penalty Kill
52.9% (138)
39.0% (77)
+13.9%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +13.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Spezza is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (347).
Spezza shoots right. Backlund is 60.3% vs right-shot opponents (224).
Home / Away
Spezza
Backlund
Home
58.4% (238)
51.5% (400)
Away
55.5% (245)
52.5% (345)
By Period
Spezza
Backlund
P1
59.2%
50.0%
P2
54.8%
56.4%
P3
57.4%
48.9%
Final 5 min
51.5%
51.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
56.9%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
51.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2021 | 2 | 17:18 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Apr 4, 2021 | 3 | 11:42 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 4, 2021 | 2 | 17:08 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 4, 2021 | 2 | 13:57 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Apr 4, 2021 | 2 | 05:09 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Apr 4, 2021 | 2 | 01:31 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 20, 2021 | 2 | 01:28 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 20, 2021 | 1 | 15:23 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 20, 2021 | 1 | 08:11 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 20, 2021 | 1 | 01:20 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 20, 2021 | 1 | 01:16 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 20, 2021 | 1 | 01:08 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 19, 2021 | 2 | 18:20 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 19, 2021 | 2 | 12:30 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 24, 2021 | 1 | 10:46 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 22, 2021 | 2 | 11:44 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 24, 2021 | 2 | 14:30 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 24, 2021 | 2 | 02:20 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |