Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +11.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Ribeiro on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Spezza wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Ribeiro shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 51.9% vs Ribeiro 42.8% (+11.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ribeiro 77.6%
Defensive zone
Ribeiro 63.2%
Neutral zone
Ribeiro 69.1%
Result
Mike Ribeiro favored at 71.9%
28.1%
71.9%
Spezza
Ribeiro
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Spezza
Ribeiro
Last 8: Spezza 3-5 Ribeiro
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Ribeiro
1
3
Spezza
Ribeiro
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Spezza
Ribeiro
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Spezza
Ribeiro
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Ribeiro
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (526)
41.1% (375)
+10.2%
Power Play
57.7% (123)
41.8% (67)
+15.9%
Penalty Kill
44.8% (29)
50.0% (2)
-5.2%
On power play, Spezza has a +15.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ribeiro shoots left. Spezza is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (491).
Spezza shoots right. Ribeiro is 42.9% vs right-shot opponents (161).
Home / Away
Spezza
Ribeiro
Home
53.7% (374)
38.7% (230)
Away
50.3% (304)
43.9% (214)
By Period
Spezza
Ribeiro
P1
50.2%
41.6%
P2
50.2%
45.5%
P3
56.2%
36.9%
OT
66.7%
0.0%
Final 5 min
48.0%
37.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
52.2%
Ribeiro
34.0%▼
36.0%
41.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 8, 2016 | 2 | 09:28 | Offensive | Mike Ribeiro |
| Nov 23, 2016 | 1 | 19:51 | Defensive | Mike Ribeiro |
| Nov 23, 2016 | 1 | 12:07 | Neutral | Mike Ribeiro |
| Nov 23, 2016 | 1 | 01:10 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 18, 2016 | 3 | 07:04 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 18, 2016 | 3 | 07:01 | Offensive | Mike Ribeiro |
| Oct 18, 2016 | 3 | 06:58 | Offensive | Mike Ribeiro |
| Oct 18, 2016 | 2 | 07:12 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |