Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +11.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 15 meetings). Spezza wins 55.0% vs left-shot opponents — Ribeiro shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 54.7% vs Ribeiro 43.2% (+11.6%)
H2H factor
Spezza leads 31-17 in 48 meetings
Offensive zone
Spezza 87.2%
Defensive zone
Spezza 98.4%
Neutral zone
Spezza 95.7%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 93.3%
93.3%
6.7%
Spezza
Ribeiro
Head-to-Head Record
31
-
17
(48 meetings)
31
17
Spezza
Ribeiro
Last 10: Spezza 5-5 Ribeiro
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
11
7
Spezza
Ribeiro
18 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
12
3
Spezza
Ribeiro
15 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
8
7
Spezza
Ribeiro
15 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Ribeiro
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (7,990)
42.9% (4,887)
+11.5%
Power Play
56.8% (1,726)
45.6% (930)
+11.2%
Penalty Kill
52.7% (643)
33.3% (147)
+19.4%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +19.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ribeiro shoots left. Spezza is 55.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,310).
Spezza shoots right. Ribeiro is 39.0% vs right-shot opponents (2,096).
Home / Away
Spezza
Ribeiro
Home
56.8% (5,066)
44.1% (3,144)
Away
52.7% (5,332)
41.9% (2,837)
By Period
Spezza
Ribeiro
P1
55.7%
42.6%
P2
54.4%
44.3%
P3
54.1%
41.8%
OT
51.5%
49.0%
Final 5 min
54.2%
41.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.7%
Ribeiro
34.0%▼
36.0%
43.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 8, 2016 | 2 | 09:28 | Offensive | Mike Ribeiro |
| Nov 23, 2016 | 1 | 19:51 | Defensive | Mike Ribeiro |
| Nov 23, 2016 | 1 | 12:07 | Neutral | Mike Ribeiro |
| Nov 23, 2016 | 1 | 01:10 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 18, 2016 | 3 | 07:04 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 18, 2016 | 3 | 07:01 | Offensive | Mike Ribeiro |
| Oct 18, 2016 | 3 | 06:58 | Offensive | Mike Ribeiro |
| Oct 18, 2016 | 2 | 07:12 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 29, 2016 | 3 | 01:01 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 29, 2016 | 1 | 15:42 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 1, 2016 | 3 | 16:29 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 1, 2016 | 2 | 11:33 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 1, 2016 | 1 | 08:43 | Neutral | Mike Ribeiro |
| Mar 1, 2016 | 1 | 08:33 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 1, 2016 | 1 | 08:22 | Neutral | Mike Ribeiro |
| Dec 31, 2015 | 3 | 18:51 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 31, 2015 | 3 | 15:04 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 31, 2015 | 1 | 17:31 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 11, 2015 | 3 | 03:48 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 11, 2015 | 2 | 17:42 | Offensive | Mike Ribeiro |