Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Santorelli on offensive-zone draws (78% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 55.8% vs Santorelli 50.2% (+6.1%)
H2H factor
Santorelli leads 10-5 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Santorelli 70.3%
Defensive zone
Santorelli 73.6%
Neutral zone
Santorelli 68.5%
Result
Mike Santorelli favored at 70.6%
29.4%
70.6%
Spezza
Santorelli
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
10
(15 meetings)
5
10
Spezza
Santorelli
Last 10: Spezza 5-5 Santorelli
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Santorelli
2
7
Spezza
Santorelli
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
2
1
Spezza
Santorelli
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Santorelli
1
2
Spezza
Santorelli
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Santorelli
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (795)
48.7% (754)
+7.4%
Power Play
56.9% (211)
57.9% (183)
-1.0%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (190)
49.4% (87)
+6.9%
On even strength, Spezza has a +7.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Santorelli shoots right. Spezza is 51.9% vs right-shot opponents (430).
Spezza shoots right. Santorelli is 52.4% vs right-shot opponents (328).
Home / Away
Spezza
Santorelli
Home
56.6% (532)
50.0% (502)
Away
56.0% (678)
50.4% (530)
By Period
Spezza
Santorelli
P1
58.8%
53.4%
P2
59.6%
50.4%
P3
50.4%
46.9%
OT
57.9%
53.3%
Final 5 min
55.6%
46.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
56.3%
Santorelli
40.0%▼
46.5%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2011 | 3 | 14:49 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 31, 2011 | 2 | 09:13 | Offensive | Mike Santorelli |
| Mar 31, 2011 | 2 | 06:36 | Neutral | Mike Santorelli |
| Mar 31, 2011 | 1 | 19:43 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 31, 2011 | 1 | 14:10 | Offensive | Mike Santorelli |
| Mar 31, 2011 | 1 | 05:28 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 10, 2011 | 3 | 04:01 | Offensive | Mike Santorelli |
| Mar 10, 2011 | 3 | 02:40 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 10, 2011 | 2 | 12:29 | Offensive | Mike Santorelli |
| Mar 10, 2011 | 2 | 04:11 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 10, 2011 | 1 | 06:18 | Offensive | Mike Santorelli |
| Feb 23, 2011 | 3 | 18:17 | Offensive | Mike Santorelli |
| Feb 23, 2011 | 1 | 19:56 | Neutral | Mike Santorelli |
| Feb 23, 2011 | 1 | 19:28 | Defensive | Mike Santorelli |
| Feb 23, 2011 | 1 | 15:23 | Offensive | Mike Santorelli |