Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on offensive-zone draws (78% H2H, 58 meetings). Spezza wins 55.0% vs left-shot opponents — Thompson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 54.7% vs Thompson 52.9% (+1.8%)
H2H factor
Spezza leads 73-54 in 127 meetings
Offensive zone
Spezza 83.5%
Defensive zone
Thompson 70.1%
Neutral zone
Spezza 57.5%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 60.9%
60.9%
39.1%
Spezza
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
73
-
54
(127 meetings)
73
54
Spezza
Thompson
Last 10: Spezza 6-4 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
45
13
Spezza
Thompson
58 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
13
26
Spezza
Thompson
39 total
Neutral Zone
Even
15
15
Spezza
Thompson
30 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (7,990)
54.1% (5,812)
+0.3%
Power Play
56.8% (1,726)
54.8% (135)
+2.0%
Penalty Kill
52.7% (643)
47.9% (1,381)
+4.8%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +4.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots left. Spezza is 55.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,310).
Spezza shoots right. Thompson is 50.6% vs right-shot opponents (2,660).
Home / Away
Spezza
Thompson
Home
56.8% (5,066)
54.8% (3,626)
Away
52.7% (5,332)
51.1% (3,717)
By Period
Spezza
Thompson
P1
55.7%
53.2%
P2
54.4%
52.9%
P3
54.1%
52.8%
OT
51.5%
47.9%
Final 5 min
54.2%
51.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.7%
Thompson
64.0%▲
59.0%
52.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2022 | 3 | 03:37 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Nov 10, 2021 | 3 | 18:44 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 10, 2021 | 3 | 18:37 | Offensive | Nate Thompson |
| Nov 10, 2021 | 3 | 06:43 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Nov 10, 2021 | 2 | 15:02 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 10, 2021 | 2 | 11:11 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Nov 10, 2021 | 2 | 01:46 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 10, 2021 | 1 | 11:32 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| May 14, 2021 | 2 | 05:25 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| May 14, 2021 | 1 | 14:50 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| May 14, 2021 | 1 | 14:44 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| May 14, 2021 | 1 | 11:17 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 24, 2021 | 3 | 01:44 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Apr 24, 2021 | 2 | 09:48 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 24, 2021 | 1 | 19:49 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Apr 22, 2021 | 3 | 04:15 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 22, 2021 | 2 | 08:16 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Apr 15, 2021 | 1 | 05:13 | Offensive | Nate Thompson |
| Apr 2, 2021 | 1 | 05:46 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 31, 2021 | 3 | 08:07 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |