Scouting Report
Nate Thompson holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Spezza wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Thompson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 52.4% vs Thompson 54.3% (-2.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Spezza 75.4%
Defensive zone
Thompson 79.2%
Neutral zone
Thompson 55.5%
Result
Nate Thompson favored at 52.8%
47.2%
52.8%
Spezza
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Spezza
Thompson
Last 8: Spezza 4-4 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
2
1
Spezza
Thompson
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
2
1
Spezza
Thompson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
2
Spezza
Thompson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (451)
55.5% (236)
-1.8%
Power Play
54.3% (92)
60.0% (5)
-5.7%
Penalty Kill
38.2% (34)
56.5% (46)
-18.3%
On penalty kill, Thompson has a +18.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots left. Spezza is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (409).
Spezza shoots right. Thompson is 55.7% vs right-shot opponents (88).
Home / Away
Spezza
Thompson
Home
55.0% (282)
53.1% (128)
Away
50.8% (295)
57.9% (159)
By Period
Spezza
Thompson
P1
53.1%
59.0%
P2
53.2%
55.4%
P3
52.3%
52.6%
Final 5 min
56.7%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
52.9%
Thompson
64.0%▲
59.0%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2022 | 3 | 03:37 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Nov 10, 2021 | 3 | 18:44 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 10, 2021 | 3 | 18:37 | Offensive | Nate Thompson |
| Nov 10, 2021 | 3 | 06:43 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Nov 10, 2021 | 2 | 15:02 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 10, 2021 | 2 | 11:11 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Nov 10, 2021 | 2 | 01:46 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 10, 2021 | 1 | 11:32 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |