Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Spezza wins 58.7% vs left-shot opponents — Thompson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 55.8% vs Thompson 53.7% (+2.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Spezza 72.7%
Defensive zone
Thompson 67.1%
Neutral zone
Spezza 54.3%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 55.5%
55.5%
44.5%
Spezza
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
1
(8 meetings)
7
1
Spezza
Thompson
Last 8: Spezza 7-1 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
4
0
Spezza
Thompson
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
2
1
Spezza
Thompson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
1
0
Spezza
Thompson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (795)
56.1% (478)
+0.0%
Power Play
56.9% (211)
57.1% (14)
-0.2%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (190)
47.6% (164)
+8.7%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +8.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots left. Spezza is 58.7% vs left-shot opponents (780).
Spezza shoots right. Thompson is 47.9% vs right-shot opponents (234).
Home / Away
Spezza
Thompson
Home
56.6% (532)
55.2% (315)
Away
56.0% (678)
53.3% (349)
By Period
Spezza
Thompson
P1
58.8%
57.5%
P2
59.6%
54.2%
P3
50.4%
51.1%
OT
57.9%
54.5%
Final 5 min
55.6%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
56.3%
Thompson
64.0%▲
59.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2011 | 2 | 02:09 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 19, 2011 | 2 | 10:51 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Mar 19, 2011 | 2 | 08:55 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 19, 2011 | 1 | 08:35 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 11, 2011 | 2 | 13:20 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 11, 2011 | 2 | 05:04 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 11, 2011 | 2 | 01:39 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 11, 2011 | 1 | 18:09 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |