Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Spezza wins 58.2% vs left-shot opponents — Thompson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 57.3% vs Thompson 53.4% (+4.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Spezza 83.5%
Defensive zone
Thompson 68.0%
Neutral zone
Spezza 54.9%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 76.1%
76.1%
23.9%
Spezza
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Spezza
Thompson
Last 7: Spezza 5-2 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
4
2
Spezza
Thompson
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
1
0
Spezza
Thompson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (697)
54.5% (628)
+3.5%
Power Play
60.0% (105)
47.4% (19)
+12.6%
Penalty Kill
60.0% (5)
51.3% (113)
+8.7%
On power play, Spezza has a +12.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots left. Spezza is 58.2% vs left-shot opponents (591).
Spezza shoots right. Thompson is 55.0% vs right-shot opponents (220).
Home / Away
Spezza
Thompson
Home
58.2% (376)
55.6% (329)
Away
58.2% (431)
52.4% (431)
By Period
Spezza
Thompson
P1
63.3%
55.3%
P2
54.9%
48.1%
P3
57.4%
58.4%
Final 5 min
57.1%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
58.2%
Thompson
64.0%▲
59.0%
53.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2019 | 3 | 19:41 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 17, 2019 | 2 | 15:45 | Offensive | Nate Thompson |
| Jan 17, 2019 | 1 | 16:51 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 23, 2018 | 3 | 08:33 | Offensive | Nate Thompson |
| Oct 23, 2018 | 3 | 08:26 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 23, 2018 | 2 | 11:37 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 23, 2018 | 2 | 08:29 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |