Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on offensive-zone draws (82% H2H, 11 meetings). Spezza wins 56.5% vs left-shot opponents — Thompson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 55.7% vs Thompson 50.3% (+6.5%)
H2H factor
Thompson leads 12-12 in 24 meetings
Offensive zone
Spezza 54.5%
Defensive zone
Thompson 52.1%
Neutral zone
Spezza 52.0%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 52.3%
52.3%
47.7%
Spezza
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
12
(24 meetings)
12
12
Spezza
Thompson
Last 10: Spezza 6-4 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
9
2
Spezza
Thompson
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
1
4
Spezza
Thompson
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thompson
2
6
Spezza
Thompson
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
57.9% (292)
49.6% (230)
+8.3%
Power Play
62.3% (53)
50.0% (2)
+12.3%
Penalty Kill
52.9% (138)
53.8% (52)
-0.9%
On power play, Spezza has a +12.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots left. Spezza is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (347).
Spezza shoots right. Thompson is 48.8% vs right-shot opponents (121).
Home / Away
Spezza
Thompson
Home
58.4% (238)
52.2% (134)
Away
55.5% (245)
48.7% (150)
By Period
Spezza
Thompson
P1
59.2%
54.5%
P2
54.8%
48.0%
P3
57.4%
48.2%
Final 5 min
51.5%
45.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
56.9%
Thompson
64.0%▲
59.0%
50.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 14, 2021 | 2 | 05:25 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| May 14, 2021 | 1 | 14:50 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| May 14, 2021 | 1 | 14:44 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| May 14, 2021 | 1 | 11:17 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 24, 2021 | 3 | 01:44 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Apr 24, 2021 | 2 | 09:48 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 24, 2021 | 1 | 19:49 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Apr 22, 2021 | 3 | 04:15 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 22, 2021 | 2 | 08:16 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Apr 15, 2021 | 1 | 05:13 | Offensive | Nate Thompson |
| Apr 2, 2021 | 1 | 05:46 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 31, 2021 | 3 | 08:07 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Mar 31, 2021 | 2 | 05:32 | Offensive | Nate Thompson |
| Mar 31, 2021 | 2 | 02:54 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 31, 2021 | 2 | 02:44 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Mar 31, 2021 | 1 | 12:13 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Mar 13, 2021 | 3 | 18:36 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Mar 13, 2021 | 3 | 18:28 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 13, 2021 | 1 | 02:15 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 11, 2021 | 1 | 06:00 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |