Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +4.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Spezza wins 54.0% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 54.7% vs Dowd 50.7% (+4.0%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Spezza 92.9%
Defensive zone
Dowd 88.4%
Neutral zone
Dowd 54.6%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 58.3%
41.7%
58.3%
Spezza
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
6
(11 meetings)
5
6
Spezza
Dowd
Last 10: Spezza 5-5 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
2
Spezza
Dowd
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Spezza
Dowd
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
3
2
Spezza
Dowd
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (7,990)
52.4% (6,009)
+2.0%
Power Play
56.8% (1,726)
56.1% (164)
+0.7%
Penalty Kill
52.7% (643)
44.1% (1,635)
+8.6%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +8.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Spezza is 54.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,088).
Spezza shoots right. Dowd is 51.2% vs right-shot opponents (2,675).
Home / Away
Spezza
Dowd
Home
56.8% (5,066)
51.9% (3,897)
Away
52.7% (5,332)
49.5% (3,912)
By Period
Spezza
Dowd
P1
55.7%
51.7%
P2
54.4%
50.4%
P3
54.1%
50.3%
OT
51.5%
45.9%
Final 5 min
54.2%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.7%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2022 | 3 | 13:15 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 28, 2022 | 3 | 01:44 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 11, 2018 | 3 | 07:48 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 11, 2018 | 2 | 02:02 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 11, 2018 | 1 | 04:19 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 23, 2016 | 2 | 01:19 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 20, 2016 | 3 | 06:46 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 20, 2016 | 2 | 17:42 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 20, 2016 | 2 | 08:06 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 20, 2016 | 2 | 06:12 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 20, 2016 | 1 | 07:58 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |