Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Foligno on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Spezza wins 55.0% vs left-shot opponents — Foligno shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 54.7% vs Foligno 48.6% (+6.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Foligno 68.0%
Defensive zone
Foligno 60.1%
Neutral zone
Foligno 69.1%
Result
Nick Foligno favored at 65.4%
34.6%
65.4%
Spezza
Foligno
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Spezza
Foligno
Last 6: Spezza 1-5 Foligno
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
0
4
Spezza
Foligno
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Spezza
Foligno
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Foligno
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (7,990)
48.3% (2,810)
+6.1%
Power Play
56.8% (1,726)
52.3% (730)
+4.5%
Penalty Kill
52.7% (643)
44.0% (455)
+8.7%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +8.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Foligno shoots left. Spezza is 55.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,310).
Spezza shoots right. Foligno is 46.6% vs right-shot opponents (1,501).
Home / Away
Spezza
Foligno
Home
56.8% (5,066)
49.9% (2,013)
Away
52.7% (5,332)
47.2% (1,984)
By Period
Spezza
Foligno
P1
55.7%
47.6%
P2
54.4%
50.4%
P3
54.1%
48.3%
OT
51.5%
29.7%
Final 5 min
54.2%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.7%
Foligno
54.0%▲
48.0%
48.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2019 | 3 | 13:08 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Oct 4, 2019 | 3 | 17:53 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Oct 4, 2019 | 3 | 09:53 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Oct 4, 2019 | 3 | 07:37 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Oct 4, 2019 | 2 | 14:07 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 4, 2019 | 1 | 04:11 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |