Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Spezza wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Spaling shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 54.4% vs Spaling 51.2% (+3.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Spezza 84.2%
Defensive zone
Spaling 62.6%
Neutral zone
Spezza 61.5%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 61.1%
61.1%
38.9%
Spezza
Spaling
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Spezza
Spaling
Last 7: Spezza 5-2 Spaling
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
2
0
Spezza
Spaling
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Spezza
Spaling
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
2
1
Spezza
Spaling
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Spaling
Edge
Even Strength
53.2% (763)
52.5% (461)
+0.7%
Power Play
60.9% (197)
66.7% (9)
-5.8%
Penalty Kill
57.1% (21)
46.6% (131)
+10.5%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +10.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spaling shoots left. Spezza is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (675).
Spezza shoots right. Spaling is 49.8% vs right-shot opponents (245).
Home / Away
Spezza
Spaling
Home
57.5% (518)
57.2% (297)
Away
51.8% (463)
45.7% (304)
By Period
Spezza
Spaling
P1
55.4%
54.2%
P2
54.1%
46.6%
P3
55.5%
54.3%
OT
25.0%
25.0%
Final 5 min
59.1%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.8%
Spaling
58.0%▲
53.0%
51.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 2015 | 3 | 06:45 | Defensive | Nick Spaling |
| Nov 10, 2015 | 2 | 14:50 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 10, 2015 | 2 | 04:48 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 10, 2015 | 2 | 00:28 | Neutral | Nick Spaling |
| Nov 2, 2015 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 2, 2015 | 2 | 02:56 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 2, 2015 | 2 | 02:44 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |