Scouting Report
Patrice Bergeron holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Spezza wins 57.2% vs right-shot opponents — Bergeron shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 54.4% vs Bergeron 56.8% (-2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bergeron 63.4%
Defensive zone
Bergeron 89.8%
Neutral zone
Bergeron 76.8%
Result
Patrice Bergeron favored at 72.2%
27.8%
72.2%
Spezza
Bergeron
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Spezza
Bergeron
Last 6: Spezza 5-1 Bergeron
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
3
0
Spezza
Bergeron
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
1
0
Spezza
Bergeron
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Spezza
Bergeron
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Bergeron
Edge
Even Strength
53.2% (763)
57.0% (1,376)
-3.8%
Power Play
60.9% (197)
62.8% (323)
-1.9%
Penalty Kill
57.1% (21)
51.3% (279)
+5.8%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +5.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bergeron shoots right. Spezza is 57.2% vs right-shot opponents (306).
Spezza shoots right. Bergeron is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (635).
Home / Away
Spezza
Bergeron
Home
57.5% (518)
59.1% (986)
Away
51.8% (463)
55.1% (992)
By Period
Spezza
Bergeron
P1
55.4%
55.5%
P2
54.1%
58.0%
P3
55.5%
57.9%
OT
25.0%
53.1%
Final 5 min
59.1%
57.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.8%
Bergeron
76.0%▲
64.5%
57.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 20, 2016 | 3 | 14:32 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 20, 2016 | 3 | 12:41 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 20, 2016 | 3 | 08:58 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 20, 2016 | 2 | 19:52 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 20, 2016 | 1 | 05:28 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 3, 2015 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Patrice Bergeron |