Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Spezza wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Berglund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 54.4% vs Berglund 50.1% (+4.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Spezza 84.6%
Defensive zone
Berglund 52.2%
Neutral zone
Spezza 68.0%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 72.7%
72.7%
27.3%
Spezza
Berglund
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Spezza
Berglund
Last 7: Spezza 5-2 Berglund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
2
0
Spezza
Berglund
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
3
2
Spezza
Berglund
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Berglund
Edge
Even Strength
53.2% (763)
50.4% (240)
+2.8%
Power Play
60.9% (197)
38.5% (13)
+22.4%
Penalty Kill
57.1% (21)
54.2% (24)
+2.9%
On power play, Spezza has a +22.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Berglund shoots left. Spezza is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (675).
Spezza shoots right. Berglund is 52.5% vs right-shot opponents (101).
Home / Away
Spezza
Berglund
Home
57.5% (518)
51.8% (114)
Away
51.8% (463)
49.1% (163)
By Period
Spezza
Berglund
P1
55.4%
48.4%
P2
54.1%
50.6%
P3
55.5%
52.1%
OT
25.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
59.1%
57.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.8%
Berglund
60.0%▲
57.0%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2016 | 3 | 06:02 | Neutral | Patrik Berglund |
| Mar 12, 2016 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Patrik Berglund |
| Mar 12, 2016 | 2 | 03:51 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 12, 2016 | 2 | 03:47 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 12, 2016 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 12, 2016 | 1 | 12:01 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 12, 2016 | 1 | 05:28 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |