Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +12.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 20 meetings). Spezza wins 55.0% vs left-shot opponents — Elias shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 54.7% vs Elias 42.7% (+12.2%)
H2H factor
Spezza leads 29-14 in 43 meetings
Offensive zone
Spezza 98.1%
Defensive zone
Spezza 92.5%
Neutral zone
Spezza 96.9%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 96.2%
96.2%
3.8%
Spezza
Elias
Head-to-Head Record
29
-
14
(43 meetings)
29
14
Spezza
Elias
Last 10: Spezza 7-3 Elias
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
16
4
Spezza
Elias
20 total
Defensive Zone
Even
6
6
Spezza
Elias
12 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
7
4
Spezza
Elias
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Elias
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (7,990)
42.3% (2,591)
+12.1%
Power Play
56.8% (1,726)
48.4% (405)
+8.4%
Penalty Kill
52.7% (643)
36.0% (367)
+16.7%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +16.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Elias shoots left. Spezza is 55.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,310).
Spezza shoots right. Elias is 41.6% vs right-shot opponents (1,179).
Home / Away
Spezza
Elias
Home
56.8% (5,066)
43.2% (1,683)
Away
52.7% (5,332)
41.7% (1,725)
By Period
Spezza
Elias
P1
55.7%
41.1%
P2
54.4%
43.1%
P3
54.1%
43.0%
OT
51.5%
43.2%
Final 5 min
54.2%
40.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.7%
Elias
40.0%▲
37.5%
42.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2014 | 3 | 00:51 | Neutral | Patrik Elias |
| Oct 24, 2014 | 3 | 00:43 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 24, 2014 | 2 | 16:45 | Offensive | Patrik Elias |
| Oct 24, 2014 | 2 | 14:32 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 24, 2014 | 2 | 14:28 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 24, 2014 | 1 | 14:44 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 10, 2014 | 2 | 05:30 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 10, 2014 | 1 | 14:42 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 10, 2014 | 1 | 07:59 | Offensive | Patrik Elias |
| Apr 10, 2014 | 1 | 04:45 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 10, 2014 | 1 | 04:33 | Defensive | Patrik Elias |
| Dec 18, 2013 | 3 | 10:12 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 18, 2013 | 3 | 05:52 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 18, 2013 | 2 | 18:48 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 18, 2013 | 1 | 10:43 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 18, 2013 | 1 | 04:33 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 17, 2013 | 1 | 17:48 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 17, 2013 | 1 | 14:28 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 7, 2012 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 7, 2012 | 1 | 18:39 | Defensive | Patrik Elias |