Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.7% vs 55.1%). Look for Stastny on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 48 meetings). Spezza wins 55.0% vs left-shot opponents — Stastny shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 54.7% vs Stastny 55.1% (-0.4%)
H2H factor
Stastny leads 65-46 in 111 meetings
Offensive zone
Spezza 63.3%
Defensive zone
Stastny 50.6%
Neutral zone
Spezza 54.9%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 56.3%
56.3%
43.7%
Spezza
Stastny
Head-to-Head Record
46
-
65
(111 meetings)
46
65
Spezza
Stastny
Last 10: Spezza 4-6 Stastny
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
16
32
Spezza
Stastny
48 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
20
25
Spezza
Stastny
45 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
10
8
Spezza
Stastny
18 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Stastny
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (7,990)
54.6% (10,616)
-0.2%
Power Play
56.8% (1,726)
59.1% (1,994)
-2.3%
Penalty Kill
52.7% (643)
52.9% (1,119)
-0.2%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stastny shoots left. Spezza is 55.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,310).
Spezza shoots right. Stastny is 58.4% vs right-shot opponents (4,907).
Home / Away
Spezza
Stastny
Home
56.8% (5,066)
55.9% (7,073)
Away
52.7% (5,332)
54.3% (6,705)
By Period
Spezza
Stastny
P1
55.7%
56.3%
P2
54.4%
55.4%
P3
54.1%
53.5%
OT
51.5%
62.9%
Final 5 min
54.2%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.7%
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
55.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2021 | 2 | 11:29 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 22, 2021 | 3 | 07:29 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Apr 22, 2021 | 1 | 18:59 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Apr 15, 2021 | 2 | 16:53 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 2, 2021 | 3 | 09:20 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 2, 2021 | 1 | 10:56 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Apr 2, 2021 | 1 | 10:37 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 31, 2021 | 2 | 13:44 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 11, 2021 | 3 | 08:16 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 9, 2021 | 1 | 10:27 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 9, 2021 | 1 | 02:00 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 18, 2021 | 3 | 14:45 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 18, 2021 | 3 | 10:28 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 18, 2021 | 3 | 01:25 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 18, 2021 | 2 | 07:45 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 18, 2021 | 1 | 18:43 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 18, 2021 | 1 | 14:33 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 19, 2019 | 3 | 12:17 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Nov 19, 2019 | 2 | 04:47 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 15, 2019 | 3 | 19:57 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |