Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Stastny on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Spezza wins 58.2% vs left-shot opponents — Stastny shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 57.3% vs Stastny 54.2% (+3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stastny 58.7%
Defensive zone
Stastny 59.0%
Neutral zone
Stastny 59.4%
Result
Paul Stastny favored at 58.9%
41.1%
58.9%
Spezza
Stastny
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Spezza
Stastny
Last 6: Spezza 1-5 Stastny
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
0
2
Spezza
Stastny
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
1
3
Spezza
Stastny
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Stastny
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (697)
52.8% (657)
+5.2%
Power Play
60.0% (105)
61.0% (118)
-1.0%
Penalty Kill
60.0% (5)
61.1% (72)
-1.1%
On even strength, Spezza has a +5.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stastny shoots left. Spezza is 58.2% vs left-shot opponents (591).
Spezza shoots right. Stastny is 58.4% vs right-shot opponents (286).
Home / Away
Spezza
Stastny
Home
58.2% (376)
53.0% (464)
Away
58.2% (431)
56.7% (383)
By Period
Spezza
Stastny
P1
63.3%
47.9%
P2
54.9%
59.6%
P3
57.4%
54.9%
OT
33.3%
55.6%
Final 5 min
57.1%
57.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
58.2%
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
54.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2019 | 3 | 19:57 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 15, 2019 | 2 | 19:52 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 15, 2019 | 2 | 15:59 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 26, 2019 | 3 | 18:56 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 26, 2019 | 1 | 17:56 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 26, 2019 | 1 | 08:17 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |