Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 9 meetings). Spezza wins 56.5% vs left-shot opponents — Stastny shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 55.7% vs Stastny 54.0% (+2.2%)
H2H factor
Spezza leads 9-8 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Stastny 73.4%
Defensive zone
Spezza 79.6%
Neutral zone
Spezza 54.7%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 54.6%
54.6%
45.4%
Spezza
Stastny
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
8
(17 meetings)
9
8
Spezza
Stastny
Last 10: Spezza 4-6 Stastny
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
0
8
Spezza
Stastny
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
9
0
Spezza
Stastny
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Stastny
Edge
Even Strength
57.9% (292)
52.5% (432)
+5.4%
Power Play
62.3% (53)
60.4% (154)
+1.9%
Penalty Kill
52.9% (138)
66.7% (6)
-13.8%
On penalty kill, Stastny has a +13.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stastny shoots left. Spezza is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (347).
Spezza shoots right. Stastny is 51.5% vs right-shot opponents (196).
Home / Away
Spezza
Stastny
Home
58.4% (238)
58.3% (307)
Away
55.5% (245)
50.9% (285)
By Period
Spezza
Stastny
P1
59.2%
57.4%
P2
54.8%
51.7%
P3
57.4%
54.5%
Final 5 min
51.5%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
56.9%
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
54.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2021 | 2 | 11:29 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 22, 2021 | 3 | 07:29 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Apr 22, 2021 | 1 | 18:59 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Apr 15, 2021 | 2 | 16:53 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 2, 2021 | 3 | 09:20 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 2, 2021 | 1 | 10:56 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Apr 2, 2021 | 1 | 10:37 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 31, 2021 | 2 | 13:44 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 11, 2021 | 3 | 08:16 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 9, 2021 | 1 | 10:27 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 9, 2021 | 1 | 02:00 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 18, 2021 | 3 | 14:45 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 18, 2021 | 3 | 10:28 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 18, 2021 | 3 | 01:25 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 18, 2021 | 2 | 07:45 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 18, 2021 | 1 | 18:43 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 18, 2021 | 1 | 14:33 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |