Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +9.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Spezza wins 54.0% vs right-shot opponents — Mueller shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 54.7% vs Mueller 47.7% (+9.1%)
H2H factor
Spezza leads 8-2 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Spezza 93.0%
Defensive zone
Spezza 86.0%
Neutral zone
Spezza 86.4%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 88.9%
88.9%
11.1%
Spezza
Mueller
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
2
(10 meetings)
8
2
Spezza
Mueller
Last 10: Spezza 8-2 Mueller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
4
0
Spezza
Mueller
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
2
1
Spezza
Mueller
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
2
1
Spezza
Mueller
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Mueller
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (7,990)
44.3% (88)
+10.1%
Power Play
56.8% (1,726)
50.0% (26)
+6.8%
On even strength, Spezza has a +10.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Mueller shoots right. Spezza is 54.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,088).
Spezza shoots right. Mueller is 36.6% vs right-shot opponents (41).
Home / Away
Spezza
Mueller
Home
56.8% (5,066)
47.9% (71)
Away
52.7% (5,332)
41.9% (43)
By Period
Spezza
Mueller
P1
55.7%
52.9%
P2
54.4%
45.2%
P3
54.1%
37.8%
OT
51.5%
100.0%
Final 5 min
54.2%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.7%
Mueller
42.0%▼
45.6%
45.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2013 | 3 | 13:11 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 24, 2013 | 3 | 09:24 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 24, 2013 | 3 | 06:12 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 24, 2013 | 2 | 00:11 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 24, 2013 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Peter Mueller |
| Jan 24, 2013 | 1 | 12:26 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 24, 2013 | 1 | 05:33 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 24, 2013 | 1 | 05:23 | Defensive | Peter Mueller |
| Jan 24, 2013 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 21, 2013 | 3 | 03:37 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |