Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Johansen on offensive-zone draws (77% H2H, 17 meetings). Spezza wins 54.0% vs right-shot opponents — Johansen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 54.7% vs Johansen 53.3% (+1.3%)
H2H factor
Johansen leads 27-21 in 48 meetings
Offensive zone
Johansen 51.3%
Defensive zone
Johansen 53.5%
Neutral zone
Johansen 53.1%
Result
Ryan Johansen favored at 52.6%
47.4%
52.6%
Spezza
Johansen
Head-to-Head Record
21
-
27
(48 meetings)
21
27
Spezza
Johansen
Last 10: Spezza 4-6 Johansen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
4
13
Spezza
Johansen
17 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
6
9
Spezza
Johansen
15 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
11
5
Spezza
Johansen
16 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Johansen
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (7,990)
53.1% (11,017)
+1.3%
Power Play
56.8% (1,726)
56.2% (2,163)
+0.6%
Penalty Kill
52.7% (643)
50.5% (978)
+2.2%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johansen shoots right. Spezza is 54.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,088).
Spezza shoots right. Johansen is 51.3% vs right-shot opponents (4,371).
Home / Away
Spezza
Johansen
Home
56.8% (5,066)
55.0% (7,001)
Away
52.7% (5,332)
51.7% (7,158)
By Period
Spezza
Johansen
P1
55.7%
53.2%
P2
54.4%
53.9%
P3
54.1%
52.8%
OT
51.5%
58.2%
Final 5 min
54.2%
52.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.7%
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
53.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2022 | 2 | 08:21 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Feb 19, 2019 | 1 | 18:40 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 7, 2019 | 3 | 05:05 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Feb 7, 2019 | 2 | 11:12 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 7, 2019 | 1 | 05:57 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 2, 2019 | 1 | 11:11 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 2, 2019 | 1 | 06:20 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 27, 2018 | 2 | 10:54 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 27, 2018 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Nov 10, 2018 | 3 | 14:44 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Nov 10, 2018 | 2 | 19:33 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Nov 10, 2018 | 1 | 12:11 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Mar 6, 2018 | 2 | 07:57 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 6, 2018 | 1 | 12:34 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 12, 2017 | 3 | 12:52 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 12, 2017 | 3 | 08:15 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 12, 2017 | 3 | 08:06 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 12, 2017 | 3 | 04:38 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 12, 2017 | 1 | 05:20 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 6, 2017 | 1 | 10:08 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |