Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on offensive-zone draws (68% H2H, 41 meetings). Spezza wins 55.0% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 54.7% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-1.3%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 44-44 in 88 meetings
Offensive zone
Spezza 70.2%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 50.8%
Neutral zone
Spezza 57.2%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 60.7%
60.7%
39.3%
Spezza
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
44
-
44
(88 meetings)
44
44
Spezza
O'Reilly
Last 10: Spezza 4-6 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
28
13
Spezza
O'Reilly
41 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
9
19
Spezza
O'Reilly
28 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
7
12
Spezza
O'Reilly
19 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (7,990)
56.2% (15,260)
-1.8%
Power Play
56.8% (1,726)
58.8% (3,445)
-2.0%
Penalty Kill
52.7% (643)
51.4% (2,811)
+1.3%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Spezza is 55.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,310).
Spezza shoots right. O'Reilly is 55.7% vs right-shot opponents (7,689).
Home / Away
Spezza
O'Reilly
Home
56.8% (5,066)
57.6% (10,762)
Away
52.7% (5,332)
54.4% (10,787)
By Period
Spezza
O'Reilly
P1
55.7%
55.6%
P2
54.4%
57.0%
P3
54.1%
55.1%
OT
51.5%
62.2%
Final 5 min
54.2%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.7%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 19, 2022 | 3 | 16:35 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 19, 2022 | 1 | 18:57 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 7, 2019 | 2 | 02:50 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 7, 2019 | 1 | 12:48 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 2, 2019 | 3 | 10:33 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 2, 2019 | 2 | 07:41 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 21, 2019 | 3 | 05:36 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 21, 2019 | 3 | 05:29 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 12, 2019 | 3 | 18:26 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 12, 2019 | 3 | 11:13 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 12, 2019 | 3 | 10:08 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 12, 2019 | 3 | 00:47 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 12, 2019 | 2 | 10:23 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 12, 2019 | 2 | 04:56 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 8, 2019 | 3 | 09:21 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 8, 2019 | 2 | 19:40 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 8, 2019 | 2 | 11:48 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 8, 2019 | 2 | 06:22 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 8, 2019 | 1 | 09:20 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 20, 2018 | 3 | 11:45 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |