Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Spezza wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 52.4% vs O'Reilly 56.4% (-3.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Spezza 64.6%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 72.1%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 55.8%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 64.6%
64.6%
35.4%
Spezza
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Spezza
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Spezza
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (451)
56.6% (1,064)
-2.9%
Power Play
54.3% (92)
60.4% (260)
-6.1%
Penalty Kill
38.2% (34)
54.0% (261)
-15.8%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +15.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Spezza is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (409).
Spezza shoots right. O'Reilly is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (582).
Home / Away
Spezza
O'Reilly
Home
55.0% (282)
54.9% (801)
Away
50.8% (295)
58.7% (784)
By Period
Spezza
O'Reilly
P1
53.1%
58.0%
P2
53.2%
56.7%
P3
52.3%
55.4%
Final 5 min
56.7%
56.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
52.9%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 19, 2022 | 3 | 16:35 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 19, 2022 | 1 | 18:57 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |