Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.5% vs 52.8%). Spezza wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 53.3% vs O'Reilly 52.6% (+0.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Spezza 63.0%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 70.7%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 51.0%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 53.3%
46.7%
53.3%
Spezza
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Spezza
O'Reilly
Last 5: Spezza 4-1 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
2
0
Spezza
O'Reilly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
2
0
Spezza
O'Reilly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Spezza
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (1,283)
52.5% (1,177)
+1.3%
Power Play
52.8% (303)
54.6% (130)
-1.8%
Penalty Kill
49.4% (89)
52.8% (108)
-3.4%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +3.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Spezza is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,197).
Spezza shoots right. O'Reilly is 50.5% vs right-shot opponents (416).
Home / Away
Spezza
O'Reilly
Home
56.4% (853)
54.9% (669)
Away
50.5% (847)
51.0% (774)
By Period
Spezza
O'Reilly
P1
53.4%
52.4%
P2
54.2%
56.1%
P3
53.4%
49.8%
OT
44.4%
57.7%
Final 5 min
52.7%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
53.5%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
52.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2011 | 3 | 19:50 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 13, 2011 | 3 | 19:30 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 13, 2011 | 3 | 16:51 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 13, 2011 | 2 | 02:20 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 13, 2011 | 1 | 07:43 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |