Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Spezza wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 55.1% vs O'Reilly 59.5% (-4.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Spezza 68.2%
Defensive zone
Spezza 55.1%
Neutral zone
Spezza 62.5%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 60.0%
60.0%
40.0%
Spezza
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Spezza
O'Reilly
Last 6: Spezza 2-4 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Spezza
O'Reilly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
3
Spezza
O'Reilly
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
56.4% (654)
60.3% (1,517)
-3.9%
Power Play
51.7% (87)
61.5% (387)
-9.8%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (6)
55.0% (220)
-5.0%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +9.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Spezza is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (526).
Spezza shoots right. O'Reilly is 59.7% vs right-shot opponents (713).
Home / Away
Spezza
O'Reilly
Home
61.4% (352)
62.5% (1,143)
Away
50.9% (395)
57.1% (981)
By Period
Spezza
O'Reilly
P1
60.6%
56.8%
P2
54.8%
64.6%
P3
52.5%
58.5%
OT
0.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
57.5%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
55.8%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
60.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2018 | 3 | 11:45 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 20, 2018 | 3 | 07:24 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 20, 2018 | 2 | 18:07 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 20, 2018 | 2 | 17:57 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 4, 2017 | 2 | 18:50 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 4, 2017 | 2 | 11:51 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |