Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 52.4% vs Carrick 49.5% (+3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Spezza 75.4%
Defensive zone
Carrick 67.8%
Neutral zone
Spezza 54.4%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 54.1%
54.1%
45.9%
Spezza
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Spezza
Carrick
Last 5: Spezza 3-2 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
1
Spezza
Carrick
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
1
Spezza
Carrick
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
3
0
Spezza
Carrick
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (451)
48.9% (352)
+4.8%
Power Play
54.3% (92)
81.3% (16)
-27.0%
Penalty Kill
38.2% (34)
42.2% (45)
-4.0%
On power play, Carrick has a +27.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Spezza is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (168).
Spezza shoots right. Carrick is 48.7% vs right-shot opponents (113).
Home / Away
Spezza
Carrick
Home
55.0% (282)
46.9% (192)
Away
50.8% (295)
51.6% (221)
By Period
Spezza
Carrick
P1
53.1%
48.1%
P2
53.2%
50.0%
P3
52.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
56.7%
49.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
52.9%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
49.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2022 | 3 | 11:48 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 26, 2022 | 3 | 11:42 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 26, 2022 | 1 | 12:07 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 28, 2021 | 1 | 18:15 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 28, 2021 | 1 | 12:45 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |