Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +7.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Gagner on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 53.7% vs Gagner 47.1% (+7.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Gagner 61.9%
Defensive zone
Gagner 62.2%
Neutral zone
Gagner 65.8%
Result
Sam Gagner favored at 63.9%
36.1%
63.9%
Spezza
Gagner
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Spezza
Gagner
Last 6: Spezza 2-4 Gagner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Spezza
Gagner
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gagner
0
1
Spezza
Gagner
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gagner
1
2
Spezza
Gagner
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Gagner
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (1,097)
45.9% (815)
+8.0%
Power Play
54.8% (250)
55.3% (132)
-0.5%
Penalty Kill
52.8% (89)
25.0% (16)
+27.8%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +27.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gagner shoots right. Spezza is 51.4% vs right-shot opponents (416).
Spezza shoots right. Gagner is 49.7% vs right-shot opponents (308).
Home / Away
Spezza
Gagner
Home
55.8% (695)
48.7% (542)
Away
52.2% (741)
44.4% (421)
By Period
Spezza
Gagner
P1
50.3%
45.1%
P2
54.7%
46.6%
P3
56.0%
49.7%
OT
73.7%
25.0%
Final 5 min
52.1%
42.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.0%
Gagner
48.0%▲
41.5%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2014 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sam Gagner |
| Mar 4, 2014 | 2 | 14:12 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Mar 4, 2014 | 2 | 11:09 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 4, 2014 | 2 | 08:46 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 4, 2014 | 2 | 08:38 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |
| Mar 4, 2014 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sam Gagner |