Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +12.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Gionta on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Spezza wins 57.2% vs right-shot opponents — Gionta shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 54.4% vs Gionta 43.1% (+12.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Spezza 59.4%
Defensive zone
Gionta 81.5%
Neutral zone
Gionta 63.5%
Result
Stephen Gionta favored at 64.8%
35.2%
64.8%
Spezza
Gionta
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Spezza
Gionta
Last 6: Spezza 2-4 Gionta
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Spezza
Gionta
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gionta
1
2
Spezza
Gionta
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gionta
0
1
Spezza
Gionta
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Gionta
Edge
Even Strength
53.2% (763)
41.8% (612)
+11.4%
Power Play
60.9% (197)
61.5% (13)
-0.6%
Penalty Kill
57.1% (21)
40.9% (66)
+16.2%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +16.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gionta shoots right. Spezza is 57.2% vs right-shot opponents (306).
Spezza shoots right. Gionta is 42.9% vs right-shot opponents (231).
Home / Away
Spezza
Gionta
Home
57.5% (518)
41.3% (344)
Away
51.8% (463)
42.9% (347)
By Period
Spezza
Gionta
P1
55.4%
39.8%
P2
54.1%
46.8%
P3
55.5%
39.5%
OT
25.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
59.1%
35.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.8%
Gionta
50.0%▲
48.0%
42.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2016 | 3 | 12:50 | Defensive | Stephen Gionta |
| Mar 4, 2016 | 2 | 15:44 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 4, 2016 | 2 | 06:25 | Neutral | Stephen Gionta |
| Jan 2, 2016 | 2 | 18:20 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 2, 2016 | 2 | 05:24 | Defensive | Stephen Gionta |
| Jan 2, 2016 | 1 | 11:44 | Offensive | Stephen Gionta |