Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 12 meetings). Spezza wins 54.0% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 54.7% vs Stamkos 51.0% (+3.7%)
H2H factor
Spezza leads 27-16 in 43 meetings
Offensive zone
Spezza 74.8%
Defensive zone
Spezza 67.4%
Neutral zone
Spezza 73.3%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 72.1%
72.1%
27.9%
Spezza
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
27
-
16
(43 meetings)
27
16
Spezza
Stamkos
Last 10: Spezza 6-4 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
10
2
Spezza
Stamkos
12 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
7
5
Spezza
Stamkos
12 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
10
9
Spezza
Stamkos
19 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (7,990)
50.4% (9,799)
+4.0%
Power Play
56.8% (1,726)
55.1% (1,725)
+1.7%
Penalty Kill
52.7% (643)
49.7% (825)
+3.0%
On even strength, Spezza has a +4.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Spezza is 54.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,088).
Spezza shoots right. Stamkos is 48.3% vs right-shot opponents (3,597).
Home / Away
Spezza
Stamkos
Home
56.8% (5,066)
52.7% (6,248)
Away
52.7% (5,332)
49.3% (6,127)
By Period
Spezza
Stamkos
P1
55.7%
49.1%
P2
54.4%
52.7%
P3
54.1%
50.9%
OT
51.5%
54.3%
Final 5 min
54.2%
52.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.7%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 21, 2022 | 3 | 07:13 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 21, 2022 | 3 | 01:53 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 21, 2022 | 2 | 12:47 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 21, 2022 | 2 | 12:38 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 4, 2021 | 2 | 19:41 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 4, 2021 | 1 | 16:32 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 14, 2019 | 3 | 02:04 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 14, 2019 | 2 | 09:25 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 14, 2019 | 2 | 09:18 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 14, 2019 | 2 | 06:13 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 14, 2019 | 2 | 02:12 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 14, 2019 | 1 | 12:53 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 14, 2019 | 1 | 12:39 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 14, 2019 | 1 | 09:25 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 14, 2019 | 1 | 01:26 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 15, 2019 | 3 | 15:22 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 1, 2018 | 1 | 01:02 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 16, 2017 | 2 | 08:14 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 17, 2016 | 2 | 15:52 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 17, 2016 | 2 | 06:10 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |