Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 52.4% vs Stamkos 50.9% (+1.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 50.2%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 57.0%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 53.9%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 55.4%
44.6%
55.4%
Spezza
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Spezza
Stamkos
Last 6: Spezza 2-4 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
1
2
Spezza
Stamkos
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
1
2
Spezza
Stamkos
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (451)
49.3% (789)
+4.4%
Power Play
54.3% (92)
56.9% (181)
-2.6%
Penalty Kill
38.2% (34)
54.1% (98)
-15.9%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +15.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Spezza is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (168).
Spezza shoots right. Stamkos is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (270).
Home / Away
Spezza
Stamkos
Home
55.0% (282)
52.0% (512)
Away
50.8% (295)
50.2% (556)
By Period
Spezza
Stamkos
P1
53.1%
42.1%
P2
53.2%
56.4%
P3
52.3%
53.7%
Final 5 min
56.7%
51.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
52.9%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 21, 2022 | 3 | 07:13 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 21, 2022 | 3 | 01:53 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 21, 2022 | 2 | 12:47 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 21, 2022 | 2 | 12:38 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 4, 2021 | 2 | 19:41 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 4, 2021 | 1 | 16:32 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |