Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Spezza wins 58.3% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 57.3% vs Stamkos 52.8% (+5.1%)
H2H factor
Spezza leads 8-2 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Spezza 81.5%
Defensive zone
Spezza 54.9%
Neutral zone
Spezza 71.6%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 66.9%
66.9%
33.1%
Spezza
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
2
(10 meetings)
8
2
Spezza
Stamkos
Last 10: Spezza 8-2 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
2
0
Spezza
Stamkos
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Spezza
Stamkos
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
4
0
Spezza
Stamkos
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (697)
52.9% (735)
+5.1%
Power Play
60.0% (105)
53.4% (73)
+6.6%
Penalty Kill
60.0% (5)
53.8% (145)
+6.2%
On power play, Spezza has a +6.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Spezza is 58.3% vs right-shot opponents (216).
Spezza shoots right. Stamkos is 52.4% vs right-shot opponents (267).
Home / Away
Spezza
Stamkos
Home
58.2% (376)
54.1% (481)
Away
58.2% (431)
52.1% (472)
By Period
Spezza
Stamkos
P1
63.3%
50.2%
P2
54.9%
53.4%
P3
57.4%
55.8%
OT
33.3%
36.4%
Final 5 min
57.1%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
58.2%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2019 | 3 | 02:04 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 14, 2019 | 2 | 09:25 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 14, 2019 | 2 | 09:18 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 14, 2019 | 2 | 06:13 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 14, 2019 | 2 | 02:12 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 14, 2019 | 1 | 12:53 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 14, 2019 | 1 | 12:39 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 14, 2019 | 1 | 09:25 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 14, 2019 | 1 | 01:26 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 15, 2019 | 3 | 15:22 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |