Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Spezza wins 53.3% vs right-shot opponents — Connolly shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 53.3% vs Connolly 48.9% (+4.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Spezza 79.0%
Defensive zone
Spezza 55.2%
Neutral zone
Spezza 78.2%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 69.9%
69.9%
30.1%
Spezza
Connolly
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Spezza
Connolly
Last 8: Spezza 6-2 Connolly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
3
0
Spezza
Connolly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Connolly
1
2
Spezza
Connolly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
2
0
Spezza
Connolly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Connolly
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (1,283)
47.8% (605)
+6.0%
Power Play
52.8% (303)
51.2% (86)
+1.6%
Penalty Kill
49.4% (89)
55.1% (89)
-5.7%
On even strength, Spezza has a +6.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Connolly shoots right. Spezza is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (503).
Spezza shoots right. Connolly is 48.7% vs right-shot opponents (238).
Home / Away
Spezza
Connolly
Home
56.4% (853)
51.1% (358)
Away
50.5% (847)
46.7% (428)
By Period
Spezza
Connolly
P1
53.4%
48.7%
P2
54.2%
48.1%
P3
53.4%
50.4%
OT
44.4%
33.3%
Final 5 min
52.7%
41.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
53.5%
Connolly
50.0%▬
51.0%
48.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2012 | 3 | 12:02 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 17, 2012 | 3 | 02:23 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 17, 2012 | 2 | 12:27 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 4, 2012 | 2 | 09:19 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |
| Feb 4, 2012 | 2 | 03:59 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 4, 2012 | 1 | 07:51 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 17, 2012 | 1 | 14:25 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |
| Oct 30, 2011 | 1 | 06:26 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |