Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +7.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Spezza wins 54.0% vs right-shot opponents — Connolly shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 54.7% vs Connolly 47.3% (+7.5%)
H2H factor
Spezza leads 9-5 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Spezza 83.4%
Defensive zone
Spezza 70.2%
Neutral zone
Spezza 82.7%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 79.4%
79.4%
20.6%
Spezza
Connolly
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
5
(14 meetings)
9
5
Spezza
Connolly
Last 10: Spezza 6-4 Connolly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
5
0
Spezza
Connolly
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Connolly
1
3
Spezza
Connolly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
3
2
Spezza
Connolly
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Connolly
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (7,990)
47.4% (1,307)
+7.0%
Power Play
56.8% (1,726)
50.2% (251)
+6.6%
Penalty Kill
52.7% (643)
41.9% (186)
+10.8%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +10.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Connolly shoots right. Spezza is 54.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,088).
Spezza shoots right. Connolly is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (576).
Home / Away
Spezza
Connolly
Home
56.8% (5,066)
48.5% (870)
Away
52.7% (5,332)
45.9% (885)
By Period
Spezza
Connolly
P1
55.7%
47.4%
P2
54.4%
47.7%
P3
54.1%
47.0%
OT
51.5%
37.8%
Final 5 min
54.2%
42.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.7%
Connolly
50.0%▬
51.0%
47.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2012 | 3 | 12:02 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 17, 2012 | 3 | 02:23 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 17, 2012 | 2 | 12:27 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 4, 2012 | 2 | 09:19 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |
| Feb 4, 2012 | 2 | 03:59 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 4, 2012 | 1 | 07:51 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 17, 2012 | 1 | 14:25 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |
| Oct 30, 2011 | 1 | 06:26 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 13, 2011 | 3 | 15:38 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Mar 13, 2011 | 2 | 19:40 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |
| Mar 13, 2011 | 2 | 17:53 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 13, 2011 | 1 | 10:02 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 25, 2011 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 25, 2011 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |