Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +5.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 15 meetings). Spezza wins 54.0% vs right-shot opponents — Johnson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 54.7% vs Johnson 49.7% (+5.0%)
H2H factor
Spezza leads 22-18 in 40 meetings
Offensive zone
Spezza 76.1%
Defensive zone
Spezza 60.4%
Neutral zone
Spezza 69.5%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 69.5%
69.5%
30.5%
Spezza
Johnson
Head-to-Head Record
22
-
18
(40 meetings)
22
18
Spezza
Johnson
Last 10: Spezza 5-5 Johnson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
10
5
Spezza
Johnson
15 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
7
4
Spezza
Johnson
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johnson
5
9
Spezza
Johnson
14 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (7,990)
49.8% (5,396)
+4.6%
Power Play
56.8% (1,726)
54.6% (885)
+2.2%
Penalty Kill
52.7% (643)
42.3% (707)
+10.4%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +10.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. Spezza is 54.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,088).
Spezza shoots right. Johnson is 49.8% vs right-shot opponents (2,203).
Home / Away
Spezza
Johnson
Home
56.8% (5,066)
52.5% (3,460)
Away
52.7% (5,332)
46.8% (3,528)
By Period
Spezza
Johnson
P1
55.7%
50.1%
P2
54.4%
50.6%
P3
54.1%
48.4%
OT
51.5%
42.5%
Final 5 min
54.2%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.7%
Johnson
42.0%▼
48.0%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2020 | 2 | 01:52 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 2, 2017 | 3 | 14:03 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 15, 2015 | 3 | 13:48 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Oct 15, 2015 | 3 | 05:26 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 15, 2015 | 1 | 10:12 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Oct 15, 2015 | 1 | 00:42 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 7, 2015 | 2 | 18:54 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Feb 5, 2015 | 3 | 18:23 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Feb 5, 2015 | 2 | 01:46 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 5, 2015 | 1 | 11:24 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Feb 5, 2015 | 1 | 01:13 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Feb 5, 2015 | 1 | 01:01 | Neutral | Tyler Johnson |
| Mar 24, 2014 | 3 | 06:54 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 24, 2014 | 2 | 13:26 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 24, 2014 | 1 | 08:05 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 20, 2014 | 3 | 19:14 | Neutral | Tyler Johnson |
| Mar 20, 2014 | 3 | 19:04 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 20, 2014 | 3 | 09:13 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Mar 20, 2014 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tyler Johnson |
| Mar 20, 2014 | 2 | 19:26 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |