Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Rask on neutral-zone draws (55% H2H, 11 meetings). Spezza wins 55.0% vs left-shot opponents — Rask shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 54.7% vs Rask 50.1% (+4.6%)
H2H factor
Rask leads 15-14 in 29 meetings
Offensive zone
Spezza 56.0%
Defensive zone
Spezza 51.8%
Neutral zone
Spezza 53.3%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 53.8%
53.8%
46.2%
Spezza
Rask
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
15
(29 meetings)
14
15
Spezza
Rask
Last 10: Spezza 3-7 Rask
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
5
5
Spezza
Rask
10 total
Defensive Zone
Even
4
4
Spezza
Rask
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Rask
5
6
Spezza
Rask
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Rask
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (7,990)
50.0% (4,428)
+4.4%
Power Play
56.8% (1,726)
54.3% (363)
+2.5%
Penalty Kill
52.7% (643)
35.2% (54)
+17.5%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +17.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Rask shoots left. Spezza is 55.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,310).
Spezza shoots right. Rask is 46.6% vs right-shot opponents (1,743).
Home / Away
Spezza
Rask
Home
56.8% (5,066)
52.0% (2,380)
Away
52.7% (5,332)
48.3% (2,465)
By Period
Spezza
Rask
P1
55.7%
50.7%
P2
54.4%
48.9%
P3
54.1%
50.7%
OT
51.5%
52.1%
Final 5 min
54.2%
48.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.7%
Rask
60.0%▲
49.5%
50.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2021 | 3 | 13:56 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 4, 2021 | 3 | 13:39 | Offensive | Victor Rask |
| Dec 4, 2021 | 2 | 05:41 | Defensive | Victor Rask |
| Dec 4, 2021 | 2 | 05:33 | Neutral | Victor Rask |
| Dec 4, 2021 | 2 | 05:21 | Neutral | Victor Rask |
| Dec 4, 2021 | 1 | 02:04 | Defensive | Victor Rask |
| Dec 31, 2019 | 3 | 16:37 | Offensive | Victor Rask |
| Mar 14, 2019 | 2 | 01:59 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 14, 2019 | 1 | 12:16 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 1, 2019 | 3 | 07:17 | Neutral | Victor Rask |
| Feb 1, 2019 | 2 | 14:29 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 1, 2019 | 2 | 04:55 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 1, 2019 | 2 | 04:33 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 1, 2019 | 1 | 10:41 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 21, 2017 | 3 | 09:02 | Neutral | Victor Rask |
| Oct 21, 2017 | 3 | 01:15 | Defensive | Victor Rask |
| Oct 21, 2017 | 2 | 19:00 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 21, 2017 | 1 | 18:38 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 1, 2017 | 2 | 04:09 | Offensive | Victor Rask |
| Apr 1, 2017 | 2 | 01:18 | Neutral | Victor Rask |