Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Rask on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Spezza wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Rask shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 52.4% vs Rask 50.4% (+2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Rask 54.9%
Defensive zone
Spezza 51.5%
Neutral zone
Spezza 51.6%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 50.5%
50.5%
49.5%
Spezza
Rask
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Spezza
Rask
Last 6: Spezza 1-5 Rask
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Rask
0
1
Spezza
Rask
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Rask
1
2
Spezza
Rask
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Rask
0
2
Spezza
Rask
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Rask
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (451)
50.6% (172)
+3.1%
Power Play
54.3% (92)
50.0% (4)
+4.3%
On power play, Spezza has a +4.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Rask shoots left. Spezza is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (409).
Spezza shoots right. Rask is 56.9% vs right-shot opponents (65).
Home / Away
Spezza
Rask
Home
55.0% (282)
53.7% (82)
Away
50.8% (295)
47.9% (94)
By Period
Spezza
Rask
P1
53.1%
56.0%
P2
53.2%
47.5%
P3
52.3%
49.3%
Final 5 min
56.7%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
52.9%
Rask
60.0%▲
49.5%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2021 | 3 | 13:56 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 4, 2021 | 3 | 13:39 | Offensive | Victor Rask |
| Dec 4, 2021 | 2 | 05:41 | Defensive | Victor Rask |
| Dec 4, 2021 | 2 | 05:33 | Neutral | Victor Rask |
| Dec 4, 2021 | 2 | 05:21 | Neutral | Victor Rask |
| Dec 4, 2021 | 1 | 02:04 | Defensive | Victor Rask |