Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +9.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Spezza wins 58.2% vs left-shot opponents — Smith shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 57.3% vs Smith 49.2% (+9.1%)
H2H factor
Spezza leads 11-3 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Spezza 96.7%
Defensive zone
Spezza 68.3%
Neutral zone
Spezza 83.4%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 86.9%
86.9%
13.1%
Spezza
Smith
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
3
(14 meetings)
11
3
Spezza
Smith
Last 10: Spezza 9-1 Smith
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
6
0
Spezza
Smith
6 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Spezza
Smith
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
4
2
Spezza
Smith
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Smith
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (697)
50.9% (666)
+7.1%
Power Play
60.0% (105)
70.0% (10)
-10.0%
Penalty Kill
60.0% (5)
39.6% (144)
+20.4%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +20.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smith shoots left. Spezza is 58.2% vs left-shot opponents (591).
Spezza shoots right. Smith is 40.9% vs right-shot opponents (298).
Home / Away
Spezza
Smith
Home
58.2% (376)
50.9% (405)
Away
58.2% (431)
47.5% (415)
By Period
Spezza
Smith
P1
63.3%
47.1%
P2
54.9%
49.6%
P3
57.4%
50.4%
OT
33.3%
100.0%
Final 5 min
57.1%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
58.2%
Smith
40.0%▼
47.0%
49.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2018 | 3 | 06:21 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 23, 2018 | 3 | 06:12 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 23, 2018 | 3 | 02:12 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 23, 2018 | 2 | 16:02 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 23, 2018 | 2 | 15:52 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 23, 2018 | 2 | 15:25 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Nov 23, 2018 | 2 | 13:40 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 23, 2018 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 15, 2018 | 3 | 17:39 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 15, 2018 | 2 | 15:52 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 15, 2018 | 2 | 06:17 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Oct 15, 2018 | 2 | 06:04 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 15, 2018 | 1 | 08:40 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Oct 15, 2018 | 1 | 00:47 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |