Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 12 meetings). Spezza wins 55.0% vs left-shot opponents — Smith shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Spezza 54.7% vs Smith 50.6% (+4.1%)
H2H factor
Spezza leads 18-10 in 28 meetings
Offensive zone
Spezza 92.9%
Defensive zone
Spezza 65.2%
Neutral zone
Spezza 80.6%
Result
Jason Spezza favored at 83.1%
83.1%
16.9%
Spezza
Smith
Head-to-Head Record
18
-
10
(28 meetings)
18
10
Spezza
Smith
Last 10: Spezza 8-2 Smith
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
9
3
Spezza
Smith
12 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Smith
1
4
Spezza
Smith
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
8
3
Spezza
Smith
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Spezza
Smith
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (7,990)
51.6% (5,265)
+2.8%
Power Play
56.8% (1,726)
51.2% (342)
+5.6%
Penalty Kill
52.7% (643)
45.3% (985)
+7.4%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +7.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smith shoots left. Spezza is 55.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,310).
Spezza shoots right. Smith is 47.8% vs right-shot opponents (2,394).
Home / Away
Spezza
Smith
Home
56.8% (5,066)
52.5% (3,289)
Away
52.7% (5,332)
48.7% (3,310)
By Period
Spezza
Smith
P1
55.7%
49.9%
P2
54.4%
50.0%
P3
54.1%
51.9%
OT
51.5%
51.6%
Final 5 min
54.2%
52.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.7%
Smith
40.0%▼
47.0%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2020 | 1 | 09:53 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Nov 23, 2018 | 3 | 06:21 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 23, 2018 | 3 | 06:12 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 23, 2018 | 3 | 02:12 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 23, 2018 | 2 | 16:02 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 23, 2018 | 2 | 15:52 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 23, 2018 | 2 | 15:25 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Nov 23, 2018 | 2 | 13:40 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 23, 2018 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 15, 2018 | 3 | 17:39 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 15, 2018 | 2 | 15:52 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 15, 2018 | 2 | 06:17 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Oct 15, 2018 | 2 | 06:04 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 15, 2018 | 1 | 08:40 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Oct 15, 2018 | 1 | 00:47 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 16, 2018 | 3 | 02:24 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 16, 2018 | 3 | 02:20 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 5, 2018 | 2 | 04:25 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 5, 2018 | 2 | 04:17 | Offensive | Zack Smith |
| Mar 5, 2018 | 2 | 01:57 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |