Scouting Report
Jay Beagle holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Kelly wins 55.8% vs right-shot opponents — Beagle shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 49.0% vs Beagle 51.4% (-2.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Beagle 79.1%
Defensive zone
Beagle 53.2%
Neutral zone
Beagle 72.9%
Result
Jay Beagle favored at 67.5%
32.5%
67.5%
Kelly
Beagle
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Kelly
Beagle
Last 5: Kelly 4-1 Beagle
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Kelly
Beagle
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
2
0
Kelly
Beagle
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kelly
1
0
Kelly
Beagle
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Beagle
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (456)
51.2% (514)
-1.2%
Power Play
40.0% (5)
38.9% (18)
+1.1%
Penalty Kill
44.9% (118)
63.4% (41)
-18.5%
On penalty kill, Beagle has a +18.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Beagle shoots right. Kelly is 55.8% vs right-shot opponents (233).
Kelly shoots left. Beagle is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (401).
Home / Away
Kelly
Beagle
Home
51.4% (350)
57.1% (280)
Away
45.0% (229)
46.4% (293)
By Period
Kelly
Beagle
P1
46.9%
46.5%
P2
53.6%
56.3%
P3
46.8%
52.0%
Final 5 min
47.8%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
48.9%
Beagle
50.0%▼
53.0%
51.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2014 | 2 | 04:59 | Offensive | Jay Beagle |
| Mar 6, 2014 | 2 | 02:01 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Mar 1, 2014 | 3 | 17:47 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Mar 1, 2014 | 3 | 15:53 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Mar 1, 2014 | 3 | 07:37 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |