Scouting Report
Jay Beagle holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Beagle on defensive-zone draws (78% H2H, 23 meetings). Beagle wins 56.2% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Beagle 56.7% vs Stamkos 51.0% (+5.8%)
H2H factor
Beagle leads 29-23 in 52 meetings
Offensive zone
Stamkos 68.1%
Defensive zone
Beagle 93.4%
Neutral zone
Beagle 72.7%
Result
Jay Beagle favored at 70.1%
70.1%
29.9%
Beagle
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
29
-
23
(52 meetings)
29
23
Beagle
Stamkos
Last 10: Beagle 7-3 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
6
9
Beagle
Stamkos
15 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Beagle
18
5
Beagle
Stamkos
23 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
5
9
Beagle
Stamkos
14 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Beagle
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
57.5% (4,994)
50.4% (9,799)
+7.1%
Power Play
60.5% (119)
55.1% (1,725)
+5.4%
Penalty Kill
54.2% (1,554)
49.7% (825)
+4.5%
On even strength, Beagle has a +7.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Beagle is 56.2% vs right-shot opponents (2,004).
Beagle shoots right. Stamkos is 48.3% vs right-shot opponents (3,597).
Home / Away
Beagle
Stamkos
Home
59.1% (3,228)
52.7% (6,248)
Away
54.5% (3,443)
49.3% (6,127)
By Period
Beagle
Stamkos
P1
57.4%
49.1%
P2
57.1%
52.7%
P3
56.2%
50.9%
OT
41.3%
54.3%
Final 5 min
56.3%
52.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Beagle
50.0%▼
53.0%
56.8%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2021 | 1 | 15:22 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Oct 28, 2021 | 1 | 15:12 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Oct 28, 2021 | 1 | 09:34 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Oct 28, 2021 | 1 | 03:12 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Jan 7, 2020 | 1 | 13:08 | Offensive | Jay Beagle |
| Dec 18, 2018 | 3 | 05:46 | Neutral | Jay Beagle |
| Dec 18, 2018 | 2 | 11:49 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Dec 18, 2018 | 2 | 08:37 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 18, 2018 | 2 | 02:26 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 18, 2018 | 1 | 13:46 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 18, 2018 | 1 | 11:12 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 11, 2018 | 3 | 01:38 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 11, 2018 | 2 | 03:27 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Feb 20, 2018 | 2 | 05:11 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Feb 20, 2018 | 2 | 02:00 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 20, 2018 | 1 | 09:52 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 20, 2018 | 1 | 00:34 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 9, 2017 | 2 | 14:02 | Neutral | Jay Beagle |
| Oct 9, 2017 | 1 | 04:54 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 18, 2015 | 3 | 10:02 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |