Scouting Report
Jay Beagle holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Beagle on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Beagle wins 57.3% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Beagle 55.9% vs Stamkos 50.9% (+6.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 51.0%
Defensive zone
Beagle 90.1%
Neutral zone
Beagle 74.5%
Result
Jay Beagle favored at 90.1%
90.1%
9.9%
Beagle
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
0
(4 meetings)
4
0
Beagle
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Beagle
4
0
Beagle
Stamkos
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Beagle
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
57.2% (353)
49.3% (789)
+7.9%
Power Play
87.5% (16)
56.9% (181)
+30.6%
Penalty Kill
51.6% (95)
54.1% (98)
-2.5%
On power play, Beagle has a +30.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Beagle is 57.3% vs right-shot opponents (124).
Beagle shoots right. Stamkos is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (270).
Home / Away
Beagle
Stamkos
Home
62.0% (200)
52.0% (512)
Away
53.4% (264)
50.2% (556)
By Period
Beagle
Stamkos
P1
55.8%
42.1%
P2
60.1%
56.4%
P3
54.5%
53.7%
OT
62.5%
62.5%
Final 5 min
63.6%
51.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Beagle
50.0%▼
53.0%
57.1%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2021 | 1 | 15:22 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Oct 28, 2021 | 1 | 15:12 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Oct 28, 2021 | 1 | 09:34 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Oct 28, 2021 | 1 | 03:12 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |