Jean-Gabriel Pageau vs Oliver Kapanen
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +12.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Pageau on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Pageau wins 57.6% vs right-shot opponents — Kapanen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 58.8% vs Kapanen 47.8% (+12.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pageau 65.5%
Defensive zone
Pageau 91.9%
Neutral zone
Pageau 84.8%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 83.0%
83.0%
17.0%
Pageau
Kapanen
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Pageau
Kapanen
Last 7: Pageau 5-2 Kapanen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
1
0
Pageau
Kapanen
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
1
0
Pageau
Kapanen
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pageau
3
2
Pageau
Kapanen
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
Kapanen
Edge
Even Strength
59.1% (687)
47.5% (514)
+11.6%
Power Play
69.4% (36)
55.0% (40)
+14.4%
Penalty Kill
60.1% (213)
39.5% (38)
+20.6%
On penalty kill, Pageau has a +20.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kapanen shoots right. Pageau is 57.6% vs right-shot opponents (243).
Pageau shoots right. Kapanen is 49.4% vs right-shot opponents (154).
Home / Away
Pageau
Kapanen
Home
57.8% (377)
47.9% (307)
Away
61.0% (559)
47.0% (285)
By Period
Pageau
Kapanen
P1
54.1%
42.7%
P2
62.1%
51.4%
P3
61.8%
48.4%
OT
75.0%
25.0%
Final 5 min
63.1%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
54.0%▼
57.5%
59.7%
Kapanen
48.0%▬
48.5%
47.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 11:20 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 08:08 | Neutral | Oliver Kapanen |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 00:45 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 1 | 06:46 | Neutral | Oliver Kapanen |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 14:23 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 01:48 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |