Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.1% vs 52.6%). Look for MacKenzie on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). MacKenzie wins 53.3% vs right-shot opponents — Carter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKenzie 52.9% vs Carter 52.4% (+0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carter 69.3%
Defensive zone
MacKenzie 79.6%
Neutral zone
MacKenzie 50.0%
Result
Derek MacKenzie favored at 61.6%
61.6%
38.4%
MacKenzie
Carter
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
MacKenzie
Carter
Last 6: MacKenzie 5-1 Carter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carter
0
1
MacKenzie
Carter
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
3
0
MacKenzie
Carter
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKenzie
2
0
MacKenzie
Carter
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKenzie
Carter
Edge
Even Strength
55.1% (737)
51.5% (934)
+3.6%
Power Play
36.8% (19)
58.5% (164)
-21.7%
Penalty Kill
48.9% (266)
52.6% (95)
-3.7%
On power play, Carter has a +21.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carter shoots right. MacKenzie is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (360).
MacKenzie shoots left. Carter is 51.6% vs left-shot opponents (810).
Home / Away
MacKenzie
Carter
Home
54.9% (506)
55.1% (554)
Away
51.4% (516)
50.4% (639)
By Period
MacKenzie
Carter
P1
54.5%
50.8%
P2
55.6%
52.1%
P3
48.2%
54.8%
OT
70.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
53.0%
51.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKenzie
56.0%▲
53.5%
53.1%
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
52.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2015 | 3 | 12:58 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Feb 5, 2015 | 2 | 19:51 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Feb 5, 2015 | 1 | 17:18 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Feb 5, 2015 | 1 | 17:13 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Nov 18, 2014 | 2 | 08:42 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Nov 18, 2014 | 2 | 02:03 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |