Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +8.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Carter on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Carter wins 53.7% vs right-shot opponents — Shaw shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 53.2% vs Shaw 45.5% (+8.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Shaw 51.0%
Defensive zone
Shaw 56.1%
Neutral zone
Shaw 55.0%
Result
Logan Shaw favored at 53.7%
46.3%
53.7%
Carter
Shaw
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Carter
Shaw
Last 9: Carter 4-5 Shaw
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carter
4
0
Carter
Shaw
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Shaw
0
4
Carter
Shaw
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Shaw
0
1
Carter
Shaw
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Shaw
Edge
Even Strength
53.3% (8,728)
46.4% (418)
+6.9%
Power Play
57.3% (1,554)
66.7% (6)
-9.4%
Penalty Kill
46.3% (1,087)
35.4% (96)
+10.9%
On penalty kill, Carter has a +10.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Shaw shoots right. Carter is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (3,429).
Carter shoots right. Shaw is 44.9% vs right-shot opponents (167).
Home / Away
Carter
Shaw
Home
54.7% (5,752)
46.2% (236)
Away
51.6% (5,632)
43.3% (284)
By Period
Carter
Shaw
P1
53.6%
41.3%
P2
52.8%
46.4%
P3
53.1%
46.9%
Final 5 min
53.2%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
53.2%
Shaw
46.0%▼
50.5%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13, 2021 | 3 | 17:26 | Defensive | Logan Shaw |
| Nov 13, 2021 | 3 | 17:18 | Defensive | Logan Shaw |
| Nov 13, 2021 | 3 | 16:28 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 13, 2021 | 3 | 06:43 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 13, 2021 | 2 | 17:01 | Defensive | Logan Shaw |
| Nov 13, 2021 | 2 | 05:36 | Neutral | Logan Shaw |
| Nov 13, 2021 | 2 | 01:19 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 13, 2021 | 1 | 17:12 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 13, 2021 | 1 | 16:50 | Defensive | Logan Shaw |