Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +6.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Carter on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Carter wins 57.4% vs right-shot opponents — Shaw shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 56.4% vs Shaw 50.2% (+6.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carter 58.1%
Defensive zone
Shaw 54.4%
Neutral zone
Shaw 53.3%
Result
Jeff Carter favored at 51.3%
51.3%
48.7%
Carter
Shaw
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Carter
Shaw
Last 9: Carter 4-5 Shaw
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carter
4
0
Carter
Shaw
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Shaw
0
4
Carter
Shaw
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Shaw
0
1
Carter
Shaw
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Shaw
Edge
Even Strength
57.9% (885)
57.5% (80)
+0.4%
Power Play
61.7% (133)
100.0% (1)
-38.3%
Penalty Kill
45.4% (119)
32.4% (34)
+13.0%
On power play, Shaw has a +38.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Shaw shoots right. Carter is 57.4% vs right-shot opponents (357).
Carter shoots right. Shaw is 56.8% vs right-shot opponents (37).
Home / Away
Carter
Shaw
Home
58.2% (543)
56.9% (58)
Away
55.9% (594)
43.9% (57)
By Period
Carter
Shaw
P1
57.5%
43.6%
P2
57.1%
50.0%
P3
55.8%
57.9%
Final 5 min
57.0%
44.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
57.0%
Shaw
46.0%▼
50.5%
50.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13, 2021 | 3 | 17:26 | Defensive | Logan Shaw |
| Nov 13, 2021 | 3 | 17:18 | Defensive | Logan Shaw |
| Nov 13, 2021 | 3 | 16:28 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 13, 2021 | 3 | 06:43 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 13, 2021 | 2 | 17:01 | Defensive | Logan Shaw |
| Nov 13, 2021 | 2 | 05:36 | Neutral | Logan Shaw |
| Nov 13, 2021 | 2 | 01:19 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 13, 2021 | 1 | 17:12 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 13, 2021 | 1 | 16:50 | Defensive | Logan Shaw |