Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +19.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Carter wins 58.8% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 58.5% vs Cates 40.4% (+19.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cates 56.2%
Defensive zone
Carter 65.8%
Neutral zone
Cates 50.4%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 50.6%
49.4%
50.6%
Carter
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Carter
Cates
Last 5: Carter 2-3 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
1
2
Carter
Cates
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carter
1
0
Carter
Cates
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
0
1
Carter
Cates
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
59.7% (727)
40.4% (841)
+19.3%
Power Play
68.1% (72)
42.4% (66)
+25.7%
Penalty Kill
53.2% (139)
32.7% (147)
+20.5%
On power play, Carter has a +25.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Carter is 58.8% vs left-shot opponents (640).
Carter shoots right. Cates is 40.0% vs right-shot opponents (305).
Home / Away
Carter
Cates
Home
58.7% (455)
38.2% (566)
Away
60.0% (483)
41.0% (488)
By Period
Carter
Cates
P1
61.3%
40.5%
P2
57.1%
42.4%
P3
59.8%
35.3%
OT
57.1%
42.9%
Final 5 min
60.2%
36.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
59.4%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
39.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2023 | 3 | 11:57 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 3 | 07:11 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 2 | 15:27 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 2 | 06:49 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 1 | 16:45 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |