Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Marleau on defensive-zone draws (94% H2H, 16 meetings). Carter wins 53.0% vs left-shot opponents — Marleau shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 53.2% vs Marleau 50.9% (+2.3%)
H2H factor
Marleau leads 29-16 in 45 meetings
Offensive zone
Marleau 75.7%
Defensive zone
Marleau 75.7%
Neutral zone
Marleau 74.9%
Result
Patrick Marleau favored at 75.5%
24.5%
75.5%
Carter
Marleau
Head-to-Head Record
16
-
29
(45 meetings)
16
29
Carter
Marleau
Last 10: Carter 1-9 Marleau
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carter
10
9
Carter
Marleau
19 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Marleau
1
15
Carter
Marleau
16 total
Neutral Zone
Even
5
5
Carter
Marleau
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Marleau
Edge
Even Strength
53.3% (8,728)
50.3% (2,656)
+3.0%
Power Play
57.3% (1,554)
55.7% (332)
+1.6%
Penalty Kill
46.3% (1,087)
50.7% (452)
-4.4%
On penalty kill, Marleau has a +4.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Marleau shoots left. Carter is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,955).
Carter shoots right. Marleau is 51.0% vs right-shot opponents (1,389).
Home / Away
Carter
Marleau
Home
54.7% (5,752)
53.3% (1,735)
Away
51.6% (5,632)
48.5% (1,715)
By Period
Carter
Marleau
P1
53.6%
52.2%
P2
52.8%
49.5%
P3
53.1%
50.7%
OT
56.5%
55.1%
Final 5 min
53.2%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
53.2%
Marleau
50.0%▲
47.0%
50.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2021 | 3 | 09:22 | Offensive | Patrick Marleau |
| Apr 9, 2021 | 1 | 16:19 | Defensive | Patrick Marleau |
| Jan 18, 2017 | 3 | 09:58 | Offensive | Patrick Marleau |
| Jan 18, 2017 | 1 | 01:13 | Offensive | Patrick Marleau |
| Jan 3, 2017 | 1 | 14:31 | Offensive | Patrick Marleau |
| Mar 28, 2016 | 3 | 04:28 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 28, 2016 | 1 | 12:33 | Offensive | Patrick Marleau |
| Jan 24, 2016 | 3 | 00:07 | Defensive | Patrick Marleau |
| Jan 24, 2016 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Patrick Marleau |
| Jan 24, 2016 | 1 | 02:48 | Defensive | Patrick Marleau |
| Jan 24, 2016 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Patrick Marleau |
| Dec 22, 2015 | 3 | 18:42 | Defensive | Patrick Marleau |
| Dec 22, 2015 | 3 | 13:02 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 22, 2015 | 2 | 01:26 | Offensive | Patrick Marleau |
| Dec 22, 2015 | 1 | 18:11 | Defensive | Patrick Marleau |
| Dec 22, 2015 | 1 | 12:55 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 22, 2015 | 1 | 10:32 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 22, 2015 | 1 | 04:08 | Defensive | Patrick Marleau |
| Dec 22, 2015 | 1 | 01:40 | Neutral | Patrick Marleau |
| Oct 22, 2015 | 1 | 12:45 | Neutral | Patrick Marleau |